Regional forecast for 2012

The Middle East is a notoriously unpredictable region, as was demonstrated last year with the unforeseen mass protests which erupted throughout the Arab world. In comparison, Israel has been an island of stability amid a very turbulent region.

Yet going into the new year of 2012, there are some clear challenges facing Israel that bear watching in the months ahead.
 
 

These include:
1) The stagnated peace process with the Palestinians;
2) The Arab Spring’s current trend of sweeping Islamists into power; and
3) Iran’s chilling advance towards nuclear weapons.

Impasse in peace process

For more than two years now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly offered to hold peace talks anywhere and at anytime with the Palestinian Authority. But the Palestinians have refused to engage in direct negotiations with him, raising all sorts of excuses and preconditions to block any contacts. Yet Westerns leaders have refused to publicly hold the Palestinians accountable for the resulting impasse. When their frustrations at the lack of progress have boiled over lately, American and European officials instead have questioned Netanyahu’s integrity and placed the burden on Israel to break the logjam.

Some in the Mideast Quartet contend that progress with the Palestinians would slow the momentum of Islamist factions scoring big election victories in neighbouring Arab countries. But Israeli leaders insist the uncertainty created by the rise of these radical Muslim elements means Jerusalem has to be even more cautious about making concessions to the Palestinians. In addition, PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas is considering once again a national unity pact with Hamas.

Thus, we can expect the stalemate in the peace process to continue into the coming year, especially since US President Barack Obama is facing re-election and will not want to risk alienating America’s many pro-Israel voters by further bullying of Netanyahu.

Dangerous direction of the Arab Spring

The bright hopes of the Arab Spring which erupted one year ago have been crushed under the weight of violent uprisings that have brought little real progress towards freedom and democracy. The mass street protests throughout the Middle East have toppled several Arab tyrants. Yet these rulers are largely being replaced by Islamist movements bent on taking the region back to the seventh century. Israel is especially concerned about developments over its borders in Egypt, Jordan and Syria.

In Jordan, King Abdullah II is losing the traditional support of Bedouin tribes and has sought to quell unrest by engaging in dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood. A weakened or deposed Hashemite throne would be a huge blow to the peace camp with Israel.

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad is fighting for his life with a brutal crackdown on protests that has drawn the ire and censure of the Arab League and Turkey. To survive, the Assad regime may again provoke clashes along the border with Israel in hopes of reuniting his fractured country against the common ‘Zionist’ enemy. On the other hand, his departure – which some see as inevitable – would be a serious setback to Iran’s regional ambitions, but there is no guarantee the country’s Sunni majority would be any friendlier towards Israel.

Meantime in Egypt, elections were held recently for a new parliament and the Muslim Brotherhood won nearly 40% of the seats, meaning it will be able to set the agenda for the largest Arab nation going forward. Yet an even more hard-line Salafist party shocked everyone by capturing a quarter of the votes.

Both Islamist movements are hostile to Israel and committed to the goal of a restored worldwide caliphate through which Muslims will dominate the globe. They just differ over the tactics that should be used to achieve that end. The Muslim Brotherhood advocates a long-term path of education, patience and deception, while the Salafists preach “Jihad Now!” They are inspired and funded by the same Wahabbi reactionary movement in Saudi Arabia that birthed al-Qaida.

Analysts doubt whether the Brotherhood and the Salafists can get along in the same coalition government in Cairo, but one thing they do agree on is that the 1979 peace treaty with Israel is up for “review”. At the very least, we can expect radical Muslim elements to take actions aimed at testing and undermining Egypt’s peaceful relations with Israel. In response, Jerusalem has already tripled the pace of construction on a 300-kilometer security fence along the southern border with Sinai.

There are also signs that Western leaders are giving in to temptations to engage with the Islamist factions coming to power in Egypt and elsewhere. Reports indicate the Obama administration has held discreet talks with the Muslim Brotherhood and we should not be surprised if they enter into a quiet accommodation with Islamist leaders that could come at Israel’s expense.

End game with Iran

The Iranian threat is back in the headlines due to the alarming report on its renegade nuclear program issued in early November by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This report concluded that Iran is now on the threshold of producing atomic warheads specifically designed to fit on its Shihab III ballistic missiles. The report has brought a new urgency to the debate over the best approach now for the West: tougher sanctions, pre-emptive strikes, or containment.

Israel has been trying to energise that debate over the past year out of concern that Iran’s relentless atomic quest was being sidelined by the Arab Spring and Palestinian bid for statehood. At this late date, Israeli leaders have concluded that only crippling sanctions coupled with the “credible threat” of military action can persuade Iran to cease its nuclear activities.

Those added sanctions could include an embargo on Iran’s oil exports. But Western powers are concerned this could drive up petrol prices and further stagger an already shaky world economy.

As a final argument, Israeli officials are warning the world’s oil resources will be in jeopardy anyway if Iran is allowed to spark a nuclear arms race in the region.

With concerns growing that Israel could take matters into its own hands, Netanyahu may have tipped his hand in a recent speech honouring David Ben-Gurion. He recalled how “great statesmen” cautioned Ben-Gurion that declaring a Jewish state in 1948 would bring an invasion of Arab armies. “He understood full well the decision carried a heavy price, but he believed not making that decision had a heavier price,” Netanyahu stated.

For its part, Iran has reacted to the IAEA report with more denials and more bellicose threats against Israel. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad even told his nation to prepare for the “final confrontation”.

Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah also briefed his field commanders recently on plans for the next military conflict with Israel, insisting the Iranian proxy militia would hit Tel Aviv with long range missiles, while sending ground forces to conquer border towns in the northern Galilee.

In reality, a secret war with Iran is already underway in the form of sea blockades off Gaza and Lebanon and covert operations inside Iran. We now know that Western drones are in the skies over Iran every day, its computer systems are being hacked, its atomic scientists are vanishing, and its nuclear and military facilities are mysteriously blowing up. The slightest incident in 2012 and this standoff could easily escalate into an open armed conflict with global consequences.

David Parsons is media director for the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem and contributing editor for The Jerusalem Post Christian Edition.